OCTOBER 19, 2024 - It has been a very dry start to October and we're more than halfway through the month. While October is often a dry month, averaging a little over 3", October 2024 has been exceptionally dry with most places in Southern Illinois receiving a trace or less of rainfall through October 19th. This dry pattern will be tough to break, but a pattern change towards the end of the month could bring better chances for some wet weather. More on that in a bit.
After the first frost of the season this past week, the weather will do a flip flop as ridging aloft begins to take control once again. There is a weak upper-level disturbance slated to track across the Midwest this week, but much like the others, it will be moisture starved and losing steam as it tracks east. It will be enough to drag a cold front through the area on Wednesday, bringing another brief cool down, though frost is unlikely. This cool down will send afternoon temperatures back into the 60s Thursday, but highs bounce right back into the 70s again on Friday.
By next weekend, strong upper-level ridging builds back across the Eastern U.S. Above average temperatures will once again prevail into the last week of October. Temperatures in the mid 70s will be common October 27-30 at least.
Now, to the pattern change. A large trough will move down into the Western U.S. towards the end of October and into the first part of November. With ridging over the Eastern U.S. still, this will push the Jetstream closer to the middle of the country. For us, it's too early to know exactly what this will mean for Southern Illinois, but this is a more favorable pattern for larger storm systems to track through the Midwest with the ability to tap into moisture in the Gulf of Mexico. Fingers crossed that one of these systems does not fall on Halloween, but it would be nice to get a little rainfall as we begin to transition into November.
In the meantime, enjoy the warm Autumn weather!
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