MORE WET WEATHER IN NOVEMBER THAN OCTOBER

October 2024 is in the rear-view mirror, coming in around three degrees warmer than average, but nearly three inches drier than average. While it seemed like a very warm month, the dry ground assisted in providing a lot of cool mornings and warm afternoons, so the overall average of the month was nowhere near a record.

As we flip the calendar to November, there are some subtle pattern shifts that will likely bring us a bit more rain, but colder weather still looks to be large absent. A large trough over the western U.S. will eject into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday of this week, dragging a cold front through Southern Illinois and providing another good chance for widespread rain with a few thunderstorms. Timing for Tuesday's rain looks to be focused from mid-morning and throughout the afternoon. At the time of this writing, 0.75-1.25 inches looks likely.

To our north and west, very heavy rain will fall across parts of Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, and northern Illinois. This should finally bring some water down the Mississippi River, which was very low throughout much of October.

Ridging builds back in later in the week, but the next trough is set to eject into the Upper Midwest next weekend (November 9-10). Once again, there will be a cold front that sweeps across Southern Illinois with another chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms. If you have outdoor plans next weekend, keep an eye on the forecast throughout the week.

Temperatures this week will peak in the mid to upper 70s on Monday, which is about 15 degrees above average. The cold front sweeping through the area on Tuesday will bring a slight cool down, dropping temperatures back into the upper 60s later in the week, which is still above average for November.

So where's the cold weather? There are some hints of a more significant cool down arriving towards the middle of the month (November 14-15), but guidance is not consistent. It will be something to watch through the first half of November, which might not feature any frost or freezes.