OCTOBER 12, 2024 - Where would we be without Hurricane Francine and Hurricane Helene providing beneficial rainfall during the month of September? Those systems produced upwards of 10" of rain in parts of Southern Illinois in September. Meanwhile, we're nearly midway through October with no rain to speak of. Right now, it appears most will remain dry in the region until around October 20-25. While still more than a week away, there are some consistent signs of a disturbance with a little more moisture that may produce a few showers.
Using the global ensembles, probabilities of 0.10" of rainfall between October 20-25 are in the 70-90% range, but when the amounts are increased to 0.50", then the probabilities go down to only around 30-40%. In other words, while we may finally see a chance for rain, the amounts look to be light. There's a high chance that October is a month with less than 1" of rainfall for most of Southern Illinois.
This weekend will feature what is likely the last 80s in 2024. A substantial cold front will sweep across the region Sunday afternoon associated with a deep trough over the Great Lakes. This will bring the coldest air of the Autumn season so far. Afternoon temperatures will only be in the low to mid 60s throughout much of the upcoming week.
High pressure will build in from the north Wednesday morning, allowing winds to relax, maximizing the cooling. Patchy frost will likely develop, especially in rural areas Wednesday morning as temperatures dip into the low to mid 30s. It will be a similar story on Thursday morning, though temperatures might be 1-2 degrees warmer.
As high pressure shifts east later in the week, winds will turn more southerly. Temperatures will bounce back to the lower 70s by Friday and into the weekend.
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