OCTOBER 26, 2024 -- October 2024 has been a very warm month. Besides the mid-month cool down that brought much of the region their first frost, temperatures have remained very mind with lower 80s once again making a reappearance on Friday.
A large upper-level ridge building in across the Great Lakes with surface high pressure in the Northeast will keep the unseasonably warm temperatures into the last few days of October. Low 80s will once again by possible on October 29 and October 30.
Meanwhile, a large trough over the western U.S. is set to eject eastward later in the week. This will coincide with low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes and a trailing cold front arriving into Southern Illinois on the morning of Halloween. With a consistent flow from the southwest, there will be more moisture available, which should lead to a solid line of storms tracking through the region bringing much needed rainfall.
It appears most of the rain will be on Thursday morning, so with a little luck, trick-or-treating Thursday evening won't be impacted.
At this time, rainfall amounts look to be 0.5-1.0" for most through Thursday afternoon.
This is just what was needed to finally break down the pattern, ushering in wetter and more Autumn-like weather as we look ahead to the first week of November. A series of small upper-level disturbances will bring multiple chances for rain, but a much larger system is consistently showing up in modeling between November 3-5.
There are some signs of a significant cool down around November 10, but confidence is still low in this occurring as it's more than two weeks away.
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