TRACKING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT WINTER WEATHER

FEBRUARY 7, 2025 -- The forecast for the upcoming week is a perfect example of why experienced meteorologists urge patience when it comes to winter weather. When it comes to snow and ice, there are a lot of small details that can make a big difference in the overall outcome.

Just think, it only takes 0.10" of liquid to amount to 1" of snowfall. That's a SMALL amount of liquid, basically the equivalent of a small passing rain shower during the afternoon. In Southern Illinois, we must also account for the fact that the region is often in the "transition zone" where there is a drastic change in precipitation type and amounts of short distances. While weather forecasting has experienced drastic improvements over the last few decades, these small details are just too complex to produce a confident forecast more than a few days in advance.

A disturbance IS expected to bring light amounts of winter weather to parts of Southern Illinois Monday night and into Tuesday. This will NOT be a big winter storm for our region. By Monday evening, precipitation will begin moving into the region. It's likely that for most of Southern Illinois, this will fall as light snow. There will likely be a transition to all rain somewhere south of Illinois Route 146 (Anna, Vienna, to Golconda). A narrow band of slightly heavier snow may set up just north of where this transition between snow and rain occurs and there could be slightly higher accumulations of 1-2". Further north, snow will be very light with only a dusting looking likely along the I-64 corridor.

By mid-morning on Tuesday, light snow will likely taper down to flurries across most of the region. I think it's possible to see some minor travel issues on rural roads and side streets, but main roads and treated surfaces will likely not experience too much issues. Additionally, once the snow comes to an end and solar radiation combines with temperatures hovering near freezing, most paved surfaces will melt quicky.

The second storm system will begin moving in Wednesday afternoon. This system is a lot stronger than the first with a lot more moisture, but that also means it has more warm air to work. At this point, the trends point to this system tracking further north. It looks more and more likely that most, if not all, of Southern Illinois will end up on the "warmer side" of this system, but there remains some potential for sleet or freezing rain depending on the track. Right now, forecast models only give Southern Illinois a 10-50% chance (southeast-northwest) of picking up 1" or more from this midweek storm system. There is still time for changes in the forecast, but that's where things stand as of Saturday, February 7.

The pattern remains very active through at least next weekend. Yet another system is expected to track through Southern Illinois next Saturday (February 15). Much like the midweek system, it appears the storm track will remain far enough north for mostly rain.

Southern Illinois is just that, it's southern. Producing winter weather is not an easy thing to do consistently in this part of the country. Once again, I just want to urge patience when it comes to winter weather forecasting.